A Comprehensive Exploration into Forecast Accuracy %
Forecast Accuracy is a critical Key Performance Indicator (KPI) that shows, as a percentage, how closely your Forecast aligns with the Actual value. Depending on the measurement objective—whether you want to assess the direction (Bias) of the error or just the magnitude (Size) of the error—this metric is utilized in two distinct ways. 1. Directional Accuracy: Features and Calculation This method focuses on diagnosing the bias or direction of the error by looking at the ratio between the forecast and the actual value. This metric is key to identifying the error's direction: whether the forecast was higher than the actual (over-forecast) or lower than the actual (under-forecast). Bias Analysis: By analyzing the error's direction (>100% or <100%), it is highly useful for diagnosing consistent tendencies where the forecasting model or process perpetually under- or over-forecasts. Stability Assessment: This value serves as the base data for CV (Coefficient of Var...